Week 12 Lines and Plays (22-10-1 last 3 weeks)

[thecruncher]

10-3-1 weeks are a hard act to follow, but we're in here trying. I calculate my lines with a combo stats/injuries/team-talent stuffed into a spreadsheet system.

In lieu of posting score predictions this week, I'm just posting my lines. The scores were just an extrapolation of my line and total anyway.

Home____PS___My PS___Value
Away____Total_My Total__Value

Lions__+9.5__+5.25___Lions 3.75 Value
Colts___54___48.25___Under 5.75 Value

I'm sorry, but the Colts offense has been unstoppable and the Lions have looked utterly stoppable, barring their 3 kick returns for TD's in the last 2 weeks. Hence, I'm going against my apparant value and teasing the Colts. If E. James can have another game like last week...

Cowboys__-3.5__-4.05__Cowboys .55 Value
Bears_____36___40.91__Over 4.91 Value

The great thing about poor QB's is that they lead to points, be it for their own team or the other team. This game should feature at least 1 Def/Spec.Team TD and that should get the over. Hell, maybe even Krenzel will have some success against the Cowboys D. and earn the over the old-fashioned way.

Patriots__-7___-8.13__Patriots 1.13 Value
Ravens__36___38.04__Over 2.04 Value

Patriots shouldn't lose at home in this one -- tease.

Giants__+7___+8.07__Eagles 1.07 Value
Eagles__37.5__40.93__Over 3.43 Value

Giants have enough offensive weapons to help put this one Over, in spite of some poor weather. Eagles tease to win.

Steelers__-10.5__-6.79__Redskins 3.71 Value
Redskins__36____31.78_Under 4.22 Value

Defenses will rule the day in this one, and I don't think the Steelers can pour on enough points to cover a Wash. tease, especially without the Duce and Plaxico.

Bengals__-6___-1___Browns 5.00 Value
Browns___38.5_39.03_Over .51 Value

The Bengals did manage to beat the Broncos by more than a TD, but I don't think they'll do it here, regardless of who starts at QB for the Browns.

Vikings__-6___-6.79__Vikings .79 Value
Jaguars__46.5_44.69__Under 1.81 Value

The Jaguars will rise up and bite you on the butt when you least expect it, so I'm only playing the total at Under 47.

Panthers__+2.5___-4.12__Panthers 6.62 Value
Bucs______39____39.8___Over .80 Value

Panthers starting to show a little life. When the line hits +3 I'm going to tease them up to +10.

Chiefs____-3___+1.53__Chargers 4.03 Value
Chargers__52___51____Under 1.00 Value

Can the Chargers continue their improbable run? It looks like they can. And I've already taken the OVER at 51.5. When my line is close to the high totals, it's usually a good spot for the over.

Texans__+2___-4.18___Texans 6.18 Value
Titans___43.5__41.58__Under 1.92 Value

The Titans will not get it done in this 2nd consecutive road game.

Falcons__-9___-8.48__Saints .52 Value
Saints___46___46.55_Over .55 Value

The Saints are an Over waiting to happen.

Cards__+3___-.08__Cards 3.08 Value
Jets___36____38.96_Over 2.96 Value

Too many ???'s in this one to make a play with any confidence.

Seahawks__-5___-.44__Bills 4.56 Value
Bills_______37.5_38.37_Over .87 Value

Seattle QB insecurites/injuries should lead to a Bills cover.

49ers____-3.46
Dolphins__37.42 NO LINES YET

I like to stay away from the Toilet Bowls. I figure this one will open up near a Pick, so maybe the Crap9ers can win one at home against the QBless Dolphins. A M*A*S*H special, this one, really -- so many injuries.

Broncos__-11__-9.42__Raiders 1.58 Value
Raiders__45.5__42.2__Under 3.30 Value

Cold, could snow, could go under.

Packers__-6___-7.54__Packers 1.54 Value
Rams___52___48.05__Under 3.95 Value

Cold, could snow, could go under. Rams ClusterF***ed at the CB position with injuries, so buyer beware.

TOP PLAYS--All plays at the lines I bought them at.

2 Team Teasers
Colts -2.5/Pats -.5
Packers PK/Eagles -1
Texans +7.5/Bills +10.5

Steelers/Redskins U36

2NDARY PLAYS

2 Team Teaser
'Skins+17/Raiders+17

Colts Under 54
Cowboys Over 35.5
Browns +6
Vikings Under 47
Eagles Over 37.5 (weather watch)
Falcons Over 46
Broncos Under 45.5
Chargers Over 51.5

I'm holding out for the Panthers to hit +3 to play them in a Teaser w/ the Chargers at +10 both teams.

Good Luck all, and have a great week.

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Good luck this week Cruncher. I see where the name comes in. I'm rooting for your under in the Colts, I have the 4th qtr under.

 

[thecruncher]

Added 2ndary play of 2nd half Over 25.5 Colts/Lions

Well, the Lions didn't bring their half of the points to my 2nd half Over bet, so I'm one thankful pilgram that I still hit the under for the game and didn't lose both ways giving up a dangerous 7.5 point middle. They were starting the 2nd half with the ball and had been moving it pretty well -- but the turnovers continued.

Anyway, 1-1 w/ the Pats -.5 to close that teaser.

Bit of a squeaker there with our under, MFG!

 

[thecruncher]

Oh, but not much of a squeaker on your 4th quarter play. Was that made before the game? Brilliant play anticipating a potential blowout.

 

[MYFOOTBALLGAME]

Cruncher

I made the 4th ptr play after the 3rd qtr. at Olympic. Fairly small play. Good luck with the rest of your plays.

 

[thecruncher]

My posted plays above have just a couple of changes -- I'm laying off the Minn./Jax Under now that Leftwich is getting the start. I'm upgrading the Phi/NYG over 37.5 to a top play -- weather doesn't look that severe. (Hope that was accurate report I read, lol)

Here's how the lines have shifted in relation to my plays.

Phi/NYG Over - bought 37.5 - still 37.5
Pitts/Wash Under - bought 36 - now 35 avg.
SD/KC Over - bought 51.5 - now 53 avg.
Den/Oak Under - bought 45.5 - now 43 avg.
Atl/NO Over - bought 46 - now avg. 47
SF/Miami Under - bought 38.5 - now 37 avg. (not counting this one as a posted play)

I feel like I'm doing something right with my spreadsheet totals - week after week the lines shift towards mine, with the exception of some high Overs where the Squares bet a false Over, then I wait and take the Under at the best possible value -- a la GB/Houston last week. However, if you think you're going to side with the public on an Over, buy it early of course! 17-7-1 on all Game totals posted this year, crossing my fingers that I can keep it up.

GL today everyone.

 

[Irishguy44]

Can you post a quick reply with your official plays listed? Thanks and GL today!

 

[thecruncher]

Irishguy, look at the first post of the thread! I may as well mention that I got off the Min/Jax game with an Over 45, so having an Under 47 for the same amount I've got a nice middling opportunity.

 

[thecruncher]

Oh, and I forgot, I did wait and get Car+10/SD+10 on a 7 point teaser, adding that as a 2ndary play. BOL this week.